The first box office predictions for Star Wars The Mandalorian and Grogu during its opening domestic weekend are here. We’ll be taking a look at it and how it compares to the previous Star Wars films released by Disney.
We’re now just forty two days away from the release of the first live-action Star Wars movie in theatres since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker which was almost a whopping seven years ago in the form of The Mandalorian and Grogu, a feature film successor and follow-up to the juggernaut hit Disney+ series, The Mandalorian.
Given how big of a hit the Jon Favreau created TV series was, Disney are likely hoping that those viewers will translate into butts in seats to see Din Djarin and Grogu’s latest adventure on the big screen. However, the first projections for the feature film are a big more tepid than Disney were likely hoping for.
According to Box Office Theory, The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently aiming for a debut of $70M-$85M. If the flick opens at the lowest of the projections, it would be the lowest domestic opening weekend haul that the Star Wars franchise under Disney.
Comparison With Other Star Wars Films
The Star Wars sequel trilogy films debuted to $248M (The Force Awakens), $220M (The Last Jedi) and $177M (The Rise of Skywalker). The A Star Wars story movies opened to $155M (Rogue One) and $84M (Solo).
The biggest live-action release of the year domestically was Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary which debuted to $80M in the United States and is currently on route to reach a haul of $600M, but the film has had very good legs and has faced minor drops weekend upon weekend.
The most comparable Star Wars movie currently to The Mandalorian and Grogu is Solo: A Star Wars Story, the only other Disney era Star Wars movie to release in May instead of December. Solo only managed to gross $393M worldwide during its theatrical run, a real disappointment in terms of numbers for the Star Wars franchise and something Disney will be hoping The Mandalorian and Grogu does not repeat.
As things stand, without seeing how the film performs week on week following its release, it’s currently impossible to accurately predict if The Mandalorian and Grogu will follow in the steps of Solo or not. More accurate projections for the domestic opening weekend will become clearer once pre-sales on the film are released.
Yesterday, multiple cinema chains began listing the runtime for the film. You can find out more and how it compares to other Star Wars films here.
For all of the latest Star Wars news, stay tuned to Bespin Bulletin. If you like our work, please consider supporting us on Patreon for ad-free articles.
