Star Wars The Mandalorian and Grogu is now looking to reach slightly higher box office numbers according to an updated projection. This follows a number of different sources tracking the film in and around the $80m but also up to $100m. Following pre-sales, we have updated looks at the film’s opening weekend numbers.
According to Box Office Theory’s latest newsletter containing updated projections, the Jon Favreau-directed flick is being bolstered by economic trends. Shawn Robbins writes that pre-sales so far are in line with expectations as they have been for the past few weeks.
Sales are now “leaning slightly on the higher end of previous ranges”. Their range is $71-85 million (3-day), $86-105m (4-day) which would put it below 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story even on the high end.
The shift to a the upper range of box office revenue is due to the average ticket price at cinemas increasing throughout 2026 and now actual ticket sales. Ticket prices have increased more this year than expected.
“We still emphasize the IP’s historically front-loaded nature warrants caution in ballooning expectations this far from release.”
Earlier this week, hollywood trade outlet Deadline reported their tracking for the film. They have it achieving over $80m during the course of the four-day Memorial Day weekend. This is around $20m lower than Solo: A Star Wars Story which opened on the exact same holiday weekend in the United States of America. Meanwhile other projections have it sitting just under $100 million.
We should expect Disney and Lucasfilm to significantly ramp up marketing and promotion for the film next week. Star Wars Day is on Monday, May 4th. Some fans will be able to watch 20+ minutes of the film in IMAX that day meanwhile a shorter portion of the film is going to be played within Fortnite. Learn more here.
The Mandalorian and Grogu releases on May 22nd in cinemas worldwide.
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