More box office predictions for Star Wars The Mandalorian and Grogu for its opening domestic weekend have arrived and things are getting interesting.
There has been a lot of talk swirling around this film’s box office numbers. We’ve already covered a few projections and analysed what it could mean. Now we’re going to cover updated projections from the first one that came out and another estimate from a different source. Let’s dive into what it could mean.
We’re now less than one month away from the release of the first new Star Wars film in theatres in almost seven years. Star Wars The Mandalorian and Grogu builds off three seasons of Disney+ streaming content with an attempt to deliver an action packed summer blockbuster. Tickets are on sale. Critics have seen a preview. However, what are the latest box office projections?
Solo Level Numbers Still On The Cards
A couple of weeks ago, the first projection came through from Shawn Robbins of Box Office Theory. They had it coming it at $71-85 million (3-day), $86-105m (4-day) which would put it below 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story. Those numbers were considered a major disappointment for the Han Solo origin story.
Now pre-sales for The Mandalorian and Grogu have been out for a few days, Box Office Theory have come back with an updated projection. Robbins wrote last night that pre-sales have so far lined up with his initial projections. This puts it in Solo number territory at the moment but The Mandalorian and Grogu is a cheaper film to make. Robbins notes that we’ll get a clearer picture of how opening weekend heavy or family-driven ticket sales end up being.
Another box office analyst echoed the same sentiment. Mando pre-sales would typically by high thanks to the Star Wars fan base but walk-ups will be lower given the nature being from a franchise even more so a sequel to a Disney+ show.
More Numbers
Onto a different projection. According to Box Office Pro, The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently aiming to debut with $90-$100m in ticket sales. This is slightly higher than Solo: A Star Wars Story which earned $84.4m during the same, opening weekend. It is also on par with the site’s projection for The Devil Wears Prada 2.
For comparison’s sake, Box Office Pro had projections for Solo: A Star Wars Story at $100-125 million over the first 3 days. It had a 4-day Memorial Weekend projection of $125-150 million. Solo underperformed achieving a little over $84m in the 3 day window and $103m at the 4-day count.
Looking Forward
Earlier this week, tickets for The Mandalorian and Grogu went on sale. There are sold-out screenings as you’d expect in many places but at the same time some fans have taken to social media to show their cinema of choice is sitting empty bar a handful of seats on opening day and weekend during peak hours. This is a little worrying considering these screenings were sold out in hours or even minutes during each of the sequel trilogies release.
There is still a month to go and tickets can still be bought. There might be a late surge as excitement spins up into lightspeed. The trailer dropped last week certainly helped. Plus, some fans have been able to get their hands on free IMAX tickets to see over 25 minutes of footage from the film on May 4th. Positive word of mouth from these previews could also help fuel the film. It remains to be seen if the Favreau-directed flick can achieve a better than expected opening.
More predictions will come in ahead of The Mandalorian and Grogu’s release on May 22nd.
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