This weekend saw Star Wars return to the big screen in the form of The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first new live-action Star Wars movie in seven years. But was it the triumphant return that Disney and Lucasfilm were hoping for?
Projections Vs Reality
Projections for the Jon Favreau directed flick had The Mandalorian and Grogu coming in at an $85M domestically over three days and around $105M over the four day weekend. The Mandalorian and Grogu came in lower than projected over the three days with $81M, which was $1M lower than what was expected when reports of its performance was posted and shared yesterday.
The Mandalorian and Grogu’s three day performance makes it the lowest domestic opening for any Star Wars movie under Disney, coming in $3M lower than 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story which brought in $84M across the three day Memorial Day weekend stateside.
The Mandalorian and Grogu also only scored $144M worldwide across three days, though some countries had the Lucasfilm flick release earlier and had a five day run. The performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu during this time is comparable to Warner Bros’ Black Adam which grossed $142M globally in its opening three day weekend.
The Mandalorian and Grogu’s domestic haul over the four day weekend reached $98M, under what was expected and projected coming into the weekend ($105M) and even down from what was projected yesterday ($100M) — $5M less than Solo: A Star Wars Story. The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to $167M globally, $4M less than Solo: A Star Wars Story, though higher than its projections coming into the weekend ($165M).
The Mandalorian and Grogu domestically grossed $33M on Friday (this includes Thursdays $12M in previews), $25.5M on Saturday, $22.5M on Sunday and $16.4M Monday.
What Does This All Mean?
Solo: A Star Wars Story went on to gross $393M globally off of a whopping net budget of $298M, an extremely high budget due incredibly significant reshoots. The Mandalorian and Grogu’s budget is reported to be $165M, significantly less than that of the 2018 Ron Howard directed flick.
Despite The Mandalorian and Grogu’s budget reportedly being $165M, the total cost including marketing is $300M according to the New York Times. If accurate then The Mandalorian and Grogu needs to perform significantly better than what is currently projected, which is a lacklustre $390M or less according to Box Office Forecast, if it is to see a profit at the theatrical box office.
I must stress that it is too early for accurate estimations on the films projected theatrical total after one weekend, more accurate projections will be available following The Mandalorian and Grogu’s second weekend.
Though The Mandalorian and Grogu’s box office may be looked at as disappointing by Disney, the mouse house is coming off of the mega-hit The Devil Wears Prada 2 which has earned over $600M on a $100M budget and will see releases later this year in the forms of Toy Story 5, Moana (Live-Action) and Avengers: Doomsday which are all expected to perform significantly well at the Box Office.
Disney and Lucasfilm will be looking at the next Star Wars movie to make a more of a splash at the box office than The Mandalorian and Grogu. Star Wars: Starfighter races into cinemas in May 2027 and is led by Ryan Gosling, who’s coming off a box office hit of his own this year — Project Hail Mary, which has grossed over $670M. The director of Starfighter is Shawn Levy, who’s last film for Disney (Deadpool and Wolverine) brought in a whopping $1.5B.
Next weekend is expected to be a battle for the top of the domestic box office between The Mandalorian and Grogu in its second weekend and A24’s Backrooms which is projected to open to over $40M.
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